The campaign of Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) has released a clever new ad -- one that closely mimics the opening of The Sopranos, only with Orlando rather than Northern New Jersey as the setting:
I don't think there's much of a copyright issue with the visuals in the Grayson spot; as far as I can tell, there's no copying of actual HBO footage, and I doubt HBO has a copyright in the idea of a montage of urban scenes from a driver's perspective. The much tougher issue for the Grayson campaign is the music, which appears to be a re-recording of the Sopranos theme (a song called "Woke Up This Morning" by British band Alabama 3 (aka A3)), with new lyrics that mock Grayson's opponent Daniel Webster (R). As to the music, the facts appear to be very similar to those in the Henley v. DeVore case, where the defendant also took a well known song and re-recorded it, substituting new lyrics attacking his political opponents. The court in the DeVore case soundly rejected the defendants' fair use argument, largely on the grounds that the campaign's use was satirical (using the work to poke fun at something else) rather than parodic (poking fun at the work itself). See Campbell v. Acuff-Rose Music, Inc., 510 US 569 (1994) (explaining parody/satire distinction).
Here's some background from the Orlando Sentinel.